Politics101: The Art of the False Allegation
- Grant McLachlan
- Aug 4
- 12 min read
Political scandals involving allegations that are later unsubstantiated or dismissed represent a complex intersection of media, law enforcement, and democratic accountability. This analysis examines documented cases across New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Australia, and the United States where a specific pattern emerges: sensational allegations surface anonymously, police investigations follow, political careers are damaged or ended, and ultimately prosecutions fail or acquittals occur.
This examination does not seek to diminish the importance of investigating serious allegations against public figures, nor to discourage legitimate complaints. Rather, it analyzes a documented phenomenon where the political damage occurs in the interim period between allegation and resolution.
The Pattern Identified
The cases examined follow a consistent trajectory:
Anonymous Leak: Sensational allegations emerge from untraceable sources;
Police Involvement: Formal investigations are launched;
Political Consequences: Resignation or standing down occurs;
Investigation Delays: Extended periods before resolution;
Non-prosecution/Acquittal: Charges are not laid or defendants are cleared; and
Political Benefit: Opposition or rivals gain advantage during the interim
As the following examples demonstrate, politically timed rumours and false allegations can cause as much damage as if the allegations were true.
Case Studies
New Zealand
Rodney Hide: The Cry Wolf (2011)
Rodney Hide had a reputation for spreading rumours and innuendo with some success - such as the downfall of Dover Samuels, John Tamihere, and David Benson-Pope. But when former National Party Leader Don Brash announced a challenge for the Act leadership, Rodney Hide's staffers Stuart Wilson and Andrew Falloon spread the rumour that Don Brash's assistant, Jordan Williams, was Don Brash's illegitimate son. The media saw right through the desperate tactics and they backfired.
Mike Sabin: The Classic Pattern (2014-2015)
The Mike Sabin case from 2014-2015 represents an early example of this pattern. National Party MP Mike Sabin resigned from parliament "due to personal issues that were best dealt with outside Parliament" one month after it is revealed that he is under investigation by police for assault⁸. Sabin, who had been the Law and Order Select Committee chair, faced allegations that were never prosecuted, yet his political career ended during the investigation period.
Brendan Horan: Financial Allegations and Political Expulsion (2012)
Brendan Horan was expelled from the New Zealand First caucus on 4 December 2012 and served the remainder of his term as an Independent⁹. The allegations surrounding his mother's estate created immediate political consequences within New Zealand First, with leader Winston Peters acting decisively to distance the party from potential scandal, regardless of legal outcomes.
The National Party Donation Scandal (2018-2021)
The Serious Fraud Office filed criminal charges against four people in relation to an alleged $100,000 donation paid into a National Party electorate bank account, following a complaint by Jami-Lee Ross in March 2019. However, the Court of Appeal later quashed the convictions against three of the donors to the National Party¹⁰. The initial allegations, made during a period of internal National Party turmoil, created significant political damage before being ultimately overturned.
Winston Peters Superannuation Leak: Perfect Electoral Timing (2017)
The Winston Peters superannuation leak represents a textbook example of strategic timing. The details of the overpayment made their way to journalists in August 2017, a month before the general election. Peters admitted being overpaid in superannuation for seven years while living with his longtime partner Jan Trotman, with the overpayment being accidental, and Peters repaid it immediately. Winston Peters has failed in the legal action he took over the leaking of details about his superannuation overpayment to media ahead of the 2017 election¹¹. The timing was particularly damaging as it occurred during coalition negotiations when Peters held the kingmaker position. Despite no criminal wrongdoing, the leak dominated headlines during the crucial final month of campaigning.
Todd Barclay: Secret Recordings and Political Cover-up (2016-2017)
The Todd Barclay case demonstrates the pattern while also showing how senior political figures can be implicated in cover-ups. On 9 February 2016, Glenys Dickson, a senior electorate agent for Barclay, resigned because of an "employment problem" between the two¹². Dickson resigned after learning Barclay had covertly recorded her during an employment dispute. She was given a payout, in part from then-prime minister John Key's leader's budget¹³. The scandal escalated when it emerged that English, who was MP in the Clutha-Southland seat before Barclay, was dragged into the scandal¹⁴. In 2017, Barclay resigned from parliament in disgrace after a scandal involving secret recordings he made¹⁵. The beneficiary was Hamish Walker, who replaced Barclay as the National Party candidate for Clutha-Southland, though Walker himself later resigned over a separate scandal involving COVID-19 patient information leaks¹⁶.
Hamish Walker COVID-19 Leak: Resignation over Information Sharing (2020)
National MP Hamish Walker resigned at the election over his involvement in a leak of Covid-19 patient information to media¹⁷. While not following the exact pattern of false allegations, this case demonstrates how leaked information can end political careers even when no criminal charges result.
Mark Mitchell's Track Record: From Dirty Politics to Police Commissioner Selection
Before examining the McSkimming case, it's crucial to understand the historical pattern of tactics associated with Mark Mitchell. When Mitchell sought the National Party nomination for Rodney, Cameron Slater and Simon Lusk deployed false allegations and rumours against his rivals, as detailed in Nicky Hager's "Dirty Politics"¹⁸. These same operatives - Slater and Lusk - employed identical tactics when campaigning for Greg Sayers, spreading rumours and false allegations against incumbent Penny Webster¹⁸. This established pattern of using false allegations to eliminate political competition provides important context for understanding the McSkimming case.
The McSkimming Case: Timing and Political Context (2024-2025)
The case of Deputy Police Commissioner Jevon McSkimming demonstrates the pattern with particular clarity regarding political timing and media manipulation. On 12 May 2025, McSkimming resigned from his position after "allegations of a very serious nature" emerged, separate from the original misconduct investigation¹. The timing was politically significant as it occurred during discussions about the future Police Commissioner role, with Police Minister Mark Mitchell's preferred candidate, Richard Chambers, ultimately securing the position².
Crucially, allegations against McSkimming were leaked to the media, forcing him to stand down and then drop his name suppression order - a sequence that clearly indicates political motivation rather than legitimate law enforcement concerns³. If the primary concern had been justice rather than political damage, the allegations would have been handled through proper channels without media leaks. The forced abandonment of name suppression through media pressure demonstrates how the leak was designed to maximize political damage rather than serve any legitimate investigative purpose.
Richard Chambers unnecessarily commented on the McSkimming allegations, claiming the moral high ground despite himself being the direct beneficiary of McSkimming's downfall¹⁹. This public commentary from the person who gained most from the allegations raises serious questions about appropriate conduct when one benefits from a rival's destruction. Allegations Police found pornographic material on McSkimming's work computer⁴ created immediate political consequences, with the very person who benefited from McSkimming's removal expressing he was "angry" and "let down"⁴.
Regardless of what the outcome of the allegations against McSkimming, the damage has been done and the political goal achieved.
The Tim Jago Scandal: Extended Suppression and Political Benefit (2022-2025)
By contrast, despite the allegations leading to a conviction, Tim Jago's case exemplifies how extended legal processes can benefit political opponents. Jago was chairman of the political party ACT New Zealand for almost four years, before resigning in January 2023 for reasons that, at the time, could not be legally disclosed. It was later revealed that the resignation happened after Jago was charged for indecently assaulting two teenage boys⁵. The case demonstrates the pattern perfectly: RNZ has previously reported the survivor's wife contacted the ACT Party on Facebook three months before Jago was charged, warning that Jago was a sexual predator⁶, yet Jago was arrested and charged on 19 January 2023 and resigned on 26 January 2023, one day after his first court appearance⁷. The extended name suppression until January 2025 meant political damage was minimised during a critical period while keeping the public uninformed.
United Kingdom
Operation Midland (2014-2016)
Operation Midland involved allegations against prominent political figures that proved to be unfounded. The operation "has had a disastrous effect on genuine complaints of child sexual abuse, both present and historical," with calls for the Metropolitan Police Commissioner to resign over the handling of the investigation²⁰. Several prominent politicians and public figures were investigated based on allegations that were later determined to be false, causing significant reputational damage during the investigation period.
Australia
Parliament House Allegations (2021)
The 2021 Australian Parliament House sexual misconduct allegations involved complex claims that resulted in significant political fallout. Brittany Higgins initially went to police after an alleged rape but dropped the complaint in April 2019, fearful it would result in termination of her employment, before later going public²¹. The case highlighted the intersection of workplace politics, criminal allegations, and media coverage.
Recent Australian Political Figure (2024)
Police confirmed that a former politician who claimed he was forced to resign due to false sexual assault allegations would not face any charges²². This case directly fits the pattern identified, where political consequences preceded legal resolution.
United States
Similar patterns emerge in the United States, though the federal system and different legal frameworks create variations in how these cases develop and resolve.
Analysis of the Pattern
The Anonymous Source Problem
Modern political scandals increasingly rely on anonymous sources and leaked information. While anonymity can protect legitimate whistle blowers, it also creates opportunities for strategic political attacks that are difficult to trace or verify initially.
Media and Political Timing
The cases examined show that allegations often surface at politically strategic moments - during leadership contests, before elections, or amid internal party disputes. The timing suggests that beyond any merit the allegations may or may not have, their political utility is carefully considered.
The Investigation Paradox
Once police investigations commence, political figures face an impossible choice: continuing in office while under investigation appears insensitive to accusers, while stepping down suggests guilt. This creates a situation where the investigation process itself becomes politically damaging regardless of outcome.
Extended Timelines
Criminal investigations, particularly those involving historical allegations, can take years to resolve. During this period, political careers stagnate or end, opposition parties benefit, and public perception solidifies around unproven allegations.
Comparative Observations
New Zealand's Intensified Pattern
The New Zealand cases demonstrate several unique characteristics that intensify the pattern identified:
Scale and Impact: In New Zealand's small political environment, scandals have outsized impact. The political culture's emphasis on personal integrity creates high stakes for any allegation, even before substantiation. The McSkimming case shows how timing allegations during leadership transitions can influence succession planning.
Extended Suppression Orders: The Tim Jago case particularly demonstrates how New Zealand's name suppression laws can extend the period of political damage while keeping the public uninformed. This creates a situation where political consequences occur in an information vacuum.
Strategic Electoral Timing: The Winston Peters superannuation leak demonstrates how the timing of revelations can be weaponized for maximum political impact. The details made their way to journalists in August 2017, a month before the general election, perfectly positioned to damage Peters during coalition negotiations when he held the kingmaker position.
Diversified Attack Vectors: New Zealand cases show the pattern extends beyond criminal allegations to include financial impropriety (Peters, Horan), administrative errors (Peters), and information leaks (Walker), suggesting a broader strategic use of any potentially damaging information.
United Kingdom
The UK's adversarial political system and aggressive media environment amplify scandals. The parliamentary system's emphasis on confidence and support makes allegations particularly destabilizing.
Australia
Australia's federal system creates multiple jurisdictions for both politics and law enforcement, sometimes complicating investigations and extending timelines.
United States
The US system's separation of powers and electoral cycles create different dynamics, though similar patterns of allegation, investigation, and political consequence occur.
The Criminal Nature of False Allegations
Legal Framework and Penalties
It is crucial to understand that conspiring to make false allegations constitutes serious criminal offenses in all jurisdictions examined. In New Zealand, making a false statement to police carries penalties of up to seven years imprisonment under Section 111 of the Crimes Act 1961²³. Conspiracy to pervert the course of justice and conspiring to bring a false allegation can attract even more severe penalties than many of the crimes falsely alleged.
In the UK, perverting the course of justice carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment, while making false statements to police typically results in up to six months imprisonment or substantial fines. Australia and the United States have similar frameworks with significant penalties for false allegations and conspiracy.
The Prosecution Gap
Despite these severe penalties, police and prosecutorial authorities have been notably reluctant to pursue charges against those who make demonstrably false allegations, particularly in political contexts. This reluctance sends a dangerous message that false allegations carry minimal risk while offering maximum political reward.
The lack of prosecutions creates a moral hazard where the potential political benefits of false allegations far outweigh the realistic risk of criminal consequences. This imbalance effectively incentivizes the strategic use of false allegations as a political weapon.
Deterrent Effect Lost
When false allegations are exposed but no prosecutions follow, it undermines the deterrent effect that criminal penalties are designed to provide. This is particularly problematic in political contexts where the stakes are highest and the temptation to use false allegations strategically is greatest.
The Criminal Justice Response Gap
Enforcement Priorities
The cases examined reveal a consistent pattern where police investigate the original allegations thoroughly but show little apparent interest in investigating potential false allegations, even when evidence suggests allegations were knowingly false or part of a broader conspiracy.
This selective enforcement sends a message that making false allegations against political figures is a low-risk, high-reward strategy. The contrast is stark: alleged victims of false allegations suffer immediate and often permanent career damage, while those making false allegations face virtually no consequences.
Implications for Democratic Systems
Due Process vs. Public Accountability
Democratic systems must balance the presumption of innocence with the need for public officials to maintain public confidence. This tension is exploited when false allegations are made strategically, particularly when there are no realistic consequences for making false allegations.
The Weaponization Risk
The pattern identified suggests that the investigation process itself can be weaponized for political advantage, regardless of the ultimate merit of allegations. The failure to prosecute false allegations only amplifies this weaponization.
Media Responsibility
The role of media in amplifying unsubstantiated allegations while investigations are ongoing raises questions about responsible reporting and the presumption of innocence. The lack of consequences for false allegations makes media scepticism even more important.
Recommended Reforms
Mandatory Investigation Protocols: When allegations are determined to be false or unsubstantiated, police should be required to investigate whether the allegations were made knowingly false or as part of a conspiracy.
Political Context Consideration: The political timing and potential beneficiaries of allegations should be considered as evidence of potential conspiracy or strategic false allegations.
Equal Enforcement: The same vigour applied to investigating original allegations should be applied to investigating potential false allegations when evidence warrants.
Conclusion
The pattern identified across these democratic nations suggests a systematic vulnerability in how political systems handle serious allegations against public figures. While the need to investigate allegations thoroughly remains paramount, the cases examined demonstrate how the investigation process itself can be exploited for political advantage.
The challenge for democratic societies is to maintain robust systems for investigating wrongdoing while preventing the abuse of those systems for political gain. This requires careful consideration of due process, media responsibility, and the timing and handling of investigations involving public figures.
The cases examined serve as a reminder that in politics, as in law, the presumption of innocence serves not only to protect the accused but to preserve the integrity of the system itself. When this principle is eroded, whether by political expediency or media pressure, the democratic process suffers regardless of the ultimate truth of any individual allegation.
The failure to prosecute demonstrably false allegations creates a dangerous precedent that encourages the strategic weaponization of the justice system for political ends. Until this prosecution gap is addressed, democratic systems remain vulnerable to those who would exploit investigations as a means of destroying political opponents without consequence.
References and Footnotes
¹ Waatea News. "Former Deputy Police Commissioner can now be identified." August 4, 2025.
² 1News. "Jevon McSkimming resignation: Winners and losers as police top brass jockey for position." August 1, 2025.
³ NZ Herald. "Jevon McSkimming resignation: Police Commissioner accepts it 'raises questions'." May 13, 2025.
⁴ RNZ News. "Police commissioner Chambers 'angry' and 'let down' following allegations against former deputy." July 20, 2025.
⁵ Wikipedia contributors. "Tim Jago." Wikipedia, May 26, 2025.
⁶ RNZ News. "'No way' of knowing Tim Jago was abuser - ACT Party." January 31, 2025.
⁷ RNZ News. "Former ACT Party president Tim Jago named as former political figure who abused teenage boys." January 31, 2025.
⁸ Wikipedia contributors. "List of political scandals in New Zealand." Wikipedia, April 17, 2025.
⁹ Wikipedia contributors. "Brendan Horan." Wikipedia, January 20, 2025.
¹⁰ Wikipedia contributors. "List of political scandals in New Zealand." Wikipedia, April 17, 2025.
¹¹ RNZ News. "Winston Peters superannuation leak privacy court claim fails." April 20, 2020.
¹² Wikipedia contributors. "Todd Barclay." Wikipedia, January 1, 2025.
¹³ Stuff. "Government gives secret payment to MP Todd Barclay's former employee over clandestine recording." June 19, 2017.
¹⁴ Stuff. "English downplays claim of 450 texts to former staffer in dispute with Barclay." August 7, 2017.
¹⁵ Wikipedia contributors. "Todd Barclay." Wikipedia, January 1, 2025.
¹⁶ Stuff. "Contenders emerge to replace embattled Clutha-Southland MP Todd Barclay." June 29, 2017.
¹⁷ Stuff. "National MP Hamish Walker will resign at the election over his involvement in a leak of Covid-19 patient information to media." 2020.
¹⁸ Hager, Nicky. "Dirty Politics: How attack politics is poisoning New Zealand's political environment." Craig Potton Publishing, 2014.
¹⁹ Various media reports on Richard Chambers' public statements regarding McSkimming allegations, 2025.
²⁰ Wikipedia contributors. "Operation Midland." Wikipedia, accessed August 2025.
²¹ Wikipedia contributors. "2021 Australian Parliament House sexual misconduct allegations." Wikipedia, accessed August 2025.
²² "False Sexual Assault Allegations." Astor Legal, September 28, 2024.
²³ New Zealand Parliamentary Service. "Crimes Act 1961, Section 111 - False statements or false evidence." Parliamentary Counsel Office.
