Who will be phoning Qiulae Wong?
Every path to the next government runs through 700,000 special votes, one electorate and one phone call.
Christopher Luxon had reason to be nervous on election night. The numbers explain why.
Labour won the party vote by 3,650 votes. Yet National’s 42 electorates give the right 67 seats in a 131-seat House. That majority rests on preliminary figures and an overhang I have already questioned.
Days before the vote, the Taxpayers’ Union told its supporters that its pollster, David Farrar, was calling a hung Parliament. He may yet be proved right.
Some 700,000 special votes remain, according to the Electoral Commission at 6:54am. Only an hour later, Jack Tame said on Q+A that he was told 400,000. They cannot cost National a seat, because its seats come from electorates, not the list. They can reshuffle everyone else and change the size of the House.
I modelled how. I took the Electoral Commission’s preliminary party votes and ran the same Sainte-Laguë formula the Commission uses, overhang included. It reproduces the preliminary allocation exactly. I then added specials using how each party’s special votes differed from its ordinary votes, across every electorate, in 2017, 2020 and 2023.
Table 1: Projected seats, National holding 42 electorates
Specials pattern | House | Nat | Lab | Grn | ACT | NZF | Opp | TPM | Right | Left + Opp |
Preliminary | 131 | 42 | 36 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 67 | 64 |
Like 2023 | 131 | 42 | 35 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 66 | 65 |
Like 2020, 450–550k | 132 | 42 | 36 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 66 | 66 |
Like 2020, 700k | 132 | 42 | 37 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 65 | 67 |
Like 2017 | 132 | 42 | 36 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 66 | 66 |
The pattern is consistent. New Zealand First loses an MP in every scenario. The Greens and Opportunity each gain one.
As National’s party vote slips further below its electorate haul, its overhang grows and the House can grow to 132. A majority then needs 67. The right has 66. So does the Left, once Opportunity is counted with it.
That is a hung Parliament. A tied vote simply lapses because the Speaker has no casting vote, and the Speaker’s vote counts with their party. Someone will be phoning Qiulae Wong. Luxon ruled out dealing with her party. Will it be him, or someone else?
Table 2: Who commands a majority, by National’s electorate tally
Specials pattern | Nat 43 | Nat 42 | Nat 41 | Nat 40 |
Preliminary | Right | Right | Right | Right |
Like 2023 | Right | Right | Hung | Left + Opp |
Like 2020, 450–550k | Right | Hung | Left + Opp | Left + Opp |
Like 2020, 700k | Left + Opp | Left + Opp | Left + Opp | Left + Opp |
Like 2017 | Right | Hung | Left + Opp | Left + Opp |
Each electorate National loses costs the right a seat while lowering the bar by only half a seat. A 43rd electorate would be game over for the Left in all but one scenario. History suggests it is unlikely: specials favoured Labour in every close seat I examined bar one.
That makes Wairarapa the most pivotal electorate in the country. Mike Butterick leads Kieran McAnulty by 139 votes. In 2017 and 2020, Wairarapa’s specials ran 3.9 and 9.8 points less National than the ordinary vote. In 2023, just 0.8. McAnulty needs 2.7. As Labour’s campaign chair, he knows exactly what his seat is worth.
Boundaries matter too. Ashhurst, moved in from Rangitikei, backed McAnulty 632 to 517, according to booth results. In 2023 it gave National a 213-vote lead. Without it, Butterick would lead by 275. The fascinating aspect of Ashurst is that it is an anomaly in the electorate, being an enclave on the other side of the ranges, so there may be a lot of special votes cast in neighbouring electorates.
What the model includes: preliminary votes, the Sainte-Laguë formula with overhang, three historical special-vote patterns at three sizes, and booth-by-booth boundary changes.
What it excludes: enrolment now closes before voting starts, removing many young, left-leaning on-the-day voters. Opportunity has no special-vote record of its own. And the last seat in any allocation can turn on a few hundred votes.
Expect lawyers. Nelson went to a judicial recount in 2023. This time Wairarapa is all but certain to follow. Wellington Bays (140 votes), Mt Roskill (262) and Hamilton East (456) could join it, with Nelson and Hutt South under scrutiny. Petitions may follow.
The commentators are right to be confused. The politicians are right to be silent. The rest of us should take a break from politics until the final count on 27 November.
Until then, the next government is sitting in a pile of envelopes, and the most important ones are in Wairarapa.
