Who would lose their seat if New Zealand banned the overhang?
I ran every electorate from the 2026 preliminary count through the rules other countries use. Eleven MPs would go, and under most of those rules the coalition’s majority goes with them.
Labour won more party votes than National. On the preliminary count, Labour took 710,330 party votes and National 706,680. National still won 42 seats to Labour’s 36. Its 42 electorates made it the first major party to secure an overhang, and the first to win no list seats at all. With Te Paati Maori winning five electorates on 0.57% of the party vote, the House grows to 131.
Last week I asked how you legislate to ban an overhang. The question now is more concrete. If the rules other democracies use had applied on 7 November, which MPs would have lost their seats? Who would have taken them? And who would be forming a government?
I went through every electorate on the Electoral Commission’s results pages to find out.
Contents
The arithmetic of 131
Proportionality starts with 120 seats shared out by party vote.
Run the preliminary party vote through the Sainte-Laguë formula New Zealand uses. Seven parties qualify. On 120 seats, National is entitled to 35, Labour 36, the Greens 16, ACT 13, NZ First 12, Opportunity 7 and Te Paati Maori one.
National won 42 electorates, seven more than its entitlement. Te Paati Maori won five, four more than its one. Those 11 overhang seats take the House to 131, so a majority now needs 66 votes. National, ACT and NZ First hold 67. Labour, the Greens and Te Paati Maori hold 57, and Opportunity seven.
Andrew Geddis put it plainly in The Spinoff. The coalition’s lead, he wrote, rests on National’s seven overhang seats outweighing Te Paati Maori’s four. Take both away and the two blocs are level.
The overhang did not just add chairs to the chamber. It decided who sits at the head of it.
A fortnight of columns
Everyone agrees there is a problem. Few say what the rule should be.
Before polling day, The Spinoff gathered the warnings. Geoffrey Palmer said a deliberate overhang would look like “a fake result”. Oliver Hartwich of the NZ Initiative said it should have been fixed “ages ago”. His August paper modelled a Parliament of up to 159 seats in an extreme scenario.
Since the count, Bryce Edwards has argued in the Democracy Project that the overhang turned a near-tie into a coalition majority, and that Parliament should change the rule before the next election. Chris Trotter told interest.co.nz readers “It was the ‘overhang’ wot done it”, but proposed no change to MMP. Graeme Edgeler told RNZ the overhang may have arisen organically because both major parties were unpopular. He added that any new rule must be signalled well in advance.
Edgeler also floated a fix of his own: limit voting on bills to party-vote strength. National would cast 35 votes rather than 42, and Te Paati Maori one rather than five.
None of them names which MPs would actually go. The results do.
Who goes first?
Any ban has to answer one question: which electorate MP forfeits?
National must shed seven of its 42 electorates and Te Paati Maori four of its five. There are three obvious tests. The first is the lowest share of the electorate vote, which is the test Germany adopted in 2023. The second is the narrowest margin. The third, which a reader put to me, is the lowest place on the party list.
Each test produces a different seven. Only one Nationalist appears on all three lists: Lloyd Budd in Whangarei, ranked 61st, who won with 40.3% of the vote and a 1,092 majority.
On the narrowest-margin test, National would lose Wairarapa (139 votes), Hamilton East (456), Whangarei (1,092), Nelson (1,210), Takanini (1,487), Kapiti (2,077) and Hamilton West (2,181). Every margin comes from the Commission’s status page. The full ranking of all 42 National winners by vote share is below, with each winner’s list place and runner-up.
# | Electorate | Winner | List | Share | Margin | Runner-up |
1 * | Whangarei | Lloyd Budd | 61 | 40.3% | 1,092 | Gary Payinda (Labour) |
2 * | Hamilton West | Tama Potaka | 11 | 42.7% | 2,181 | Myra Williamson (Labour) |
3 * | Tamaki | Mahesh Muralidhar | 24 | 43.0% | 5,356 | Max Harris (Labour) |
4 * | Wairarapa | Mike Butterick | 21 | 43.5% | 139 | Kieran McAnulty (Labour) |
5 * | Nelson | Blair Cameron | 41 | 44.2% | 1,210 | Rachel Boyack (Labour) |
6 * | Northland | Grant McCallum | 35 | 44.2% | 7,942 | Ashleigh Latimer (Labour) |
7 * | West Coast-Tasman | Katie Milne | 25 | 44.3% | 6,601 | Rory Paterson (Labour) |
8 | Rangitikei | Suze Redmayne | 32 | 44.3% | 5,506 | Karl Severinsen (Labour) |
9 | Hamilton East | Ryan Hamilton | 36 | 45.7% | 456 | Georgie Dansey (Labour) |
10 | Maungakiekie | Greg Fleming | 44 | 46.5% | 2,952 | Priyanca Radhakrishnan (Labour) |
11 | Kapiti | Tim Costley | 38 | 47.5% | 2,077 | Sophie Handford (Labour) |
12 | Northcote | Dan Bidois | 31 | 48.0% | 3,064 | Shanan Halbert (Labour) |
13 | Takanini | Rima Nakhle | 45 | 48.1% | 1,487 | Kharag Singh (Labour) |
14 | East Cape | Dana Kirkpatrick | 33 | 49.1% | 5,325 | Jo Luxton (Labour) |
15 | Kaikoura | Stuart Smith | 22 | 49.9% | 8,018 | Matt Flight (Labour) |
16 | Waitaki | Miles Anderson | 47 | 50.1% | 8,352 | Damien o'Connor (Labour) |
17 | Ilam | Hamish Campbell | 48 | 50.2% | 6,712 | Rata Jamieson (Labour) |
18 | Kaipara ki Mahurangi | Jessica Rowe | Not listed | 50.9% | 12,592 | Jolyon Swinburn (Labour) |
19 | Tukituki | Catherine Wedd | 37 | 51.0% | 8,933 | Dan Scott (Labour) |
20 | Rotorua | Todd McClay | 10 | 51.6% | 5,301 | Fisher Wang (Labour) |
21 | Port Waikato | Matthew Paul | 62 | 51.7% | 10,437 | Matt Brachi (Labour) |
22 | Napier | Katie Nimon | 27 | 52.3% | 6,847 | Alex Hedley (Labour) |
23 | Taranaki-King Country | Barbara Kuriger | 43 | 52.8% | 12,031 | David Pattemore (Labour) |
24 | Whanganui | Carl Bates | 29 | 53.3% | 6,748 | Angela Roberts (Labour) |
25 | Upper Harbour | Cameron Brewer | 20 | 54.5% | 8,967 | Hannah Baral (Labour) |
26 | Coromandel | Scott Simpson | 19 | 54.9% | 14,932 | Glen Bennett (Labour) |
27 | Waimakariri | Matt Doocey | 12 | 55.2% | 11,283 | Dan Rosewarne (Labour) |
28 | Tauranga | Sam Uffindell | 51 | 55.5% | 10,274 | Jan Tinetti (Labour) |
29 | New Plymouth | David MacLeod | 46 | 56.4% | 7,788 | Amanda Clinton-Gohdes (Labour) |
30 | Selwyn | Nicola Grigg | 17 | 56.5% | 13,941 | Sunita Gautam (Labour) |
31 | Southland | Joseph Mooney | 50 | 56.5% | 11,484 | Peter McDonald (Labour) |
32 | Papakura | Emma Chatterton | 52 | 57.1% | 8,394 | Anahila Kanongata'a (Labour) |
33 | North Shore | Simon Watts | 13 | 57.6% | 11,151 | Sam Collins (Labour) |
34 | Waikato | Tim van de Molen | 49 | 58.3% | 12,576 | Jamie Toko (Labour) |
35 | Mt Maunganui | Tom Rutherford | 28 | 58.8% | 14,059 | Rhieve Grey (Labour) |
36 | Invercargill | Penny Simmonds | 15 | 59.4% | 9,615 | Janice Lee (Labour) |
37 | Taupo | Louise Upston | 7 | 61.1% | 13,052 | Chris Flatt (Labour) |
38 | Rangitata | James Meager | 18 | 62.4% | 13,917 | Sange Malama (Labour) |
39 | East Coast Bays | Erica Stanford | 5 | 65.0% | 13,819 | Brendan McEnroe (Labour) |
40 | Botany | Christopher Luxon | 1 | 65.9% | 13,073 | Anae Leavasa (Labour) |
41 | Pakuranga | Simeon Brown | 4 | 66.8% | 13,691 | Campbell Matthews (Labour) |
42 | Whangaparaoa | Mark Mitchell | 8 | 67.2% | 15,368 | Estefania Muller Pallarès (Labour) |
* Would forfeit under the German test (seven lowest vote shares). Source: Electoral Commission preliminary results; National Party list.
Each test has its own logic. They do not reach the same answer.
The German test
Germany unseats the winners with the weakest local mandate.
Under Germany’s 2023 reform, a party only receives as many seats as its second votes cover. Where it wins too many constituencies, it loses those where its first-vote share was lowest. At the February 2025 election, 23 constituency winners were denied seats, 18 of them from the CDU/CSU.
Applied to New Zealand, the seven National casualties are the seven lowest vote shares among its 42 winners:
Electorate | Winner (list place) | Vote share | Margin | Seat would pass to |
Whangarei | Lloyd Budd, National (61) | 40.3% | 1,092 | Gary Payinda, Labour |
Hamilton West | Tama Potaka, National (11) | 42.7% | 2,181 | Myra Williamson, Labour |
Tamaki | Mahesh Muralidhar, National (24) | 43.0% | 5,356 | Max Harris, Labour |
Wairarapa | Mike Butterick, National (21) | 43.5% | 139 | Kieran McAnulty, Labour |
Nelson | Blair Cameron, National (41) | 44.2% | 1,210 | Rachel Boyack, Labour |
Northland | Grant McCallum, National (35) | 44.2% | 7,942 | Ashleigh Latimer, Labour |
West Coast-Tasman | Katie Milne, National (25) | 44.3% | 6,601 | Rory Paterson, Labour |
Te Tai Tokerau | Aperahama Edwards, Te Paati Maori (–) | 30.5% | 436 | Huhana Lyndon, Green |
Waiariki | Rawiri Waititi, Te Paati Maori (–) | 45.2% | 2,274 | Tania Waikato, Green |
Tamaki Makaurau | Oriini Kaipara, Te Paati Maori (–) | 54.2% | 7,498 | Kerrin Leoni, Labour |
Te Tai Hauauru | Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, Te Paati Maori (–) | 55.1% | 3,841 | Te Katene, Labour |
Source: Electoral Commission preliminary results, electorate detail pages. Vote share is the winner’s share of valid candidate votes.
Two names stand out. Tama Potaka, a Cabinet minister ranked 11th, won Hamilton West with 42.7%. Katie Milne loses West Coast-Tasman to Suze Redmayne’s Rangitikei by two-hundredths of a percentage point: 44.32% against 44.34%.
For Te Paati Maori, the test is brutal. Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke keeps Hauraki-Waikato with 68.6% of the vote. Both co-leaders would go. Rawiri Waititi won Waiariki with 45.2% and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer won Te Tai Hauauru with 55.1%. So would Oriini Kaipara, on 54.2%, and Aperahama Edwards, who took Te Tai Tokerau with 30.5% and a 436-vote margin.
Under the German test, both Te Paati Maori co-leaders lose their seats. A party that tells its voters to tick someone else for the party vote cannot complain when the party vote counts.
The German test unseats the weakest mandates. It does not ask how the party ranked them.
The list test
Ranking by list position gives the decision to party head office.
That was the reader’s question. If an MP wins with a huge majority but sits low on the list, should they forfeit? Under a list test, yes. National’s seven lowest-ranked electorate winners on its published list are among its safest:
Electorate | Winner | List place | Vote share | Margin | Runner-up (share) |
Kaipara ki Mahurangi | Jessica Rowe | Not listed | 50.9% | 12,592 | Jolyon Swinburn, Labour (17.7%) |
Port Waikato | Matthew Paul | 62 | 51.7% | 10,437 | Matt Brachi, Labour (22.3%) |
Whangarei | Lloyd Budd | 61 | 40.3% | 1,092 | Gary Payinda, Labour (37.6%) |
Papakura | Emma Chatterton | 52 | 57.1% | 8,394 | Anahila Kanongata'a, Labour (27.4%) |
Tauranga | Sam Uffindell | 51 | 55.5% | 10,274 | Jan Tinetti, Labour (25.7%) |
Southland | Joseph Mooney | 50 | 56.5% | 11,484 | Peter McDonald, Labour (22.9%) |
Waikato | Tim van de Molen | 49 | 58.3% | 12,576 | Jamie Toko, Labour (24.4%) |
Source: Electoral Commission preliminary results; National Party list as published 8 August 2026.
Jessica Rowe tops the forfeits without being on the list at all. She replaced Chris Penk as candidate a month after the list was released. She won Kaipara ki Mahurangi with 50.9% and a 12,592 majority. Her seat would pass to Labour’s Jolyon Swinburn, who won 17.7%. In Port Waikato, Matthew Paul’s 51.7% would yield to a candidate on 22.3%.
For Te Paati Maori the test cannot even be applied. The party filed a “one-person” list with only its general secretary, Lance Norman, on it. None of its electorate MPs has a list rank to judge.
A rule that hands a 50.9% electorate to someone on 17.7% would not survive its first by-election, let alone a court challenge.
Who takes the seats?
My proposal gives each forfeited seat to the runner-up, counted against their own party’s entitlement.
Germany simply leaves the constituency without an MP from that party. In my column, I proposed the runner-up instead, so the electorate keeps a local member and each party’s total stays fixed. Using the German selection, the 11 runners-up are all Labour or Green:
Labour gains Whangarei (Gary Payinda), Hamilton West (Myra Williamson), Tamaki (Max Harris), Wairarapa (Kieran McAnulty), Nelson (Rachel Boyack), Northland (Ashleigh Latimer), West Coast-Tasman (Rory Paterson), Tamaki Makaurau (Kerrin Leoni) and Te Tai Hauauru (Te Puoho Katene). The Greens gain Te Tai Tokerau (Huhana Lyndon) and Waiariki (Tania Waikato).
Three of those runners-up are already MPs through the list: McAnulty, Lyndon and Waikato. For the Greens, nothing changes but the label. Two list MPs become electorate MPs, and the caucus stays at 16 with the same people.
Labour’s 36 seats would hold 30 electorate MPs and six list MPs. Going by its published list, the six would be Willie Jackson, Megan Woods, Ayesha Verrall, Willow-Jean Prime, Rakesh Naidoo and Jan Tinetti. Eight list MPs would give way to eight electorate runners-up: Damien O’Connor, Jo Luxton, Priyanca Radhakrishnan, Shanan Halbert, Chris Flatt, Kingi Kiriona, Camilla Belich and Glen Bennett.
One irony: Kiriona would lose his list seat under a rule that leaves him beaten in Hauraki-Waikato. Maipi-Clarke is the one Te Paati Maori MP the German test protects.
Every electorate keeps an MP. Every party keeps exactly what its party vote earned.
Seven ways to count
Here is the same election under seven sets of rules.
Each model below starts from the same preliminary figures. The “right” bloc is National, ACT and NZ First. The “left” is Labour, the Greens and Te Paati Maori. Opportunity is shown separately.
Rule | Seats | Nat | Lab | Grn | ACT | NZF | Opp | TPM | Right | Left | Needed | Govt alone? |
NZ status quo (overhang kept) | 131 | 42 | 36 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 67 | 57 | 66 | Yes |
2012 EC / 2023 IER (120, fewer list seats) | 120 | 42 | 31 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 64 | 50 | 61 | Yes |
Germany 2013–21: full top-up | 781 | 230 | 231 | 105 | 86 | 77 | 47 | 5 | 393 | 341 | 391 | Yes |
Top up National’s overhang only | 146 | 42 | 42 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 72 | 66 | 74 | No |
Germany 2023: seat left empty | 120* | 35 | 36 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 60 | 53 | 61 | No |
Runner-up takes forfeited seat | 120 | 35 | 36 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 60 | 53 | 61 | No |
Edgeler: votes weighted to party vote | 131† | 35 | 36 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 60 | 53 | 61 | No |
Govt alone? = whether National, ACT and NZ First reach a majority by themselves. Right = National, ACT, NZ First. Left = Labour, Greens, Te Paati Maori. Opp = Opportunity. * Eleven electorates left without an MP. † 131 MPs casting 120 weighted votes. Author’s calculations using Sainte-Laguë on the preliminary party vote.
The Electoral Commission’s 2012 MMP review and the 2023 Independent Electoral Review both recommended holding the House at 120 by allocating fewer list seats. The overhanging party keeps every electorate. On these numbers, that hands the coalition 64 of 120, a bigger share than the 67 of 131 it has now. As I wrote last week, it caps the headcount but not the gain. In fact, it concentrates the gain.
Germany’s pre-2023 answer was to top up every other party until the result was proportional again. My column guessed what that would cost. The real figure is 781 seats, all to cover five electorates won on 0.57% of the party vote. Top up National’s overhang alone and the House grows to 146. There the coalition’s 72 seats fall two short of a majority.
Two models cannot yet be run. Lesotho-style single voting abolishes the split vote, so no 2026 ballot can be re-read under it. My gentler alternative would discard the party votes of voters who elected an overhang MP. That needs the split-vote statistics, which the Commission expects to publish with its detailed E9 report by 14 December.
Only the rules that remove the overhang seats outright leave the coalition short of a majority.
Opportunity’s casting vote
Banning the overhang would not hand government to the left.
Under the German test, my runner-up rule or Edgeler’s weighted voting, the coalition sits on 60 of 120, one short. Labour, the Greens and Te Paati Maori hold 53. Add Opportunity’s seven and they also reach 60, one short.
In practice, Opportunity could make a majority only by joining the coalition, taking it to 67. The alternative is a cross-bloc arrangement that nobody campaigned on. Geddis has already raised the possibility of a deadlock only Opportunity can break.
So the overhang has not changed which bloc is larger. It has changed whether the incumbents need anyone else. That is no small thing. Edwards argues it leaves a mandate thinner than its seat count.
Without the overhang, the coalition would need Opportunity’s seven votes to govern.
The special votes
All of this could still move.
About 399,365 special votes are still to be counted, and official results are due on 27 November. Several seats in this analysis are close: Wairarapa (139 votes), Mt Roskill (262), Te Tai Tokerau (436), Hamilton East (456) and Hutt South (889).
The entitlement itself is on a knife edge. In the Sainte-Laguë count, National’s 35th seat lands at 119th place and Labour’s 36th at 120th. National’s 36th falls just outside, at 121st. A modest shift in the specials, which have tended to favour the left, could cut National to 34 and lift its overhang to eight.
If Lyndon wins Te Tai Tokerau, Te Paati Maori’s overhang falls to three. Under the German test, that seat changes hands either way.
The names in this analysis are provisional. The method is not.
Writing the rule
The law needs three decisions, and Parliament can make all three now.
First, which seats go: the lowest electorate vote share, not list rank or party preference. Second, who fills them: the runner-up, counted against their own party’s entitlement, so no electorate goes unrepresented and no party gains. Third, when it starts. Edgeler is right that it must be signalled well before 2029.
The seat-allocation rules are not entrenched, so a simple majority can change them. I argued as far back as 2013 that politicians abuse MMP’s flaws. Thirteen years on, the flaw has produced its first major-party overhang and a 131-seat House. Within three weeks it may also decide who governs.
The time to write the rule is before the parties know who it will cost.
Seven National and four Te Paati Maori MPs would have lost their seats on 7 November under Germany’s rules. Abolishing the overhang now is how future winners avoid becoming its casualties.
